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Presentation of machine learning methods to determine the most important factors affecting road traffic accidentson rural roads

Hamid MIRZAHOSSEIN; Milad SASHURPOUR; Seyed Mohsen HOSSEINIAN; Vahid Najafi Moghaddam GILANI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2022年第16卷第5期页码 657-666 doi: 10.1007/s11709-022-0827-z

摘要： The purpose of this research was to develop statistical and intelligent models for predicting the severity of road traffic accidents (RTAs) on rural roads. Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) was used to predict the likelihood of RTAs. For more accurate prediction, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Radius Basis Function (RBF) neural networks were applied. Results indicated that in MLR, the model obtained from the backward method with the correct percent of 84.7% and R² value of 0.893 was the best method for predicting the likelihood of RTAs. Also, MLR showed that the variables of not paying attention to the front not paying attention to the frontroad ahead, followed byand then vehicle-motorcycle/bike accidents were the greatest problems. Among the models, MLP had a better performance, so that the prediction accuracy of MLR, MLP, and RBF were 84.7%, 96.7%, and 92.1%, respectively. MLP model, due to higher accuracy, showed that the variable of reason of accident had the highest effect on the prediction of accidents, and considering MLR results, the variables of not paying attention to the front and then vehicle-motorcycle/bike accidents had the most influence on the occurrence of accidents. Therefore, motorcyclists and cyclists are more prone to accidents, and appropriate solutions should be adopted to enhance their safety.

关键词： safety rural accidents multiple logistic regression artificial neural networks

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Experience gained in analyzing severe accidents for WWER RP using CC SOCRAT

《能源前沿（英文）》 2021年第15卷第4期页码 872-886 doi: 10.1007/s11708-021-0796-2

摘要： The current Russian regulatory documents on the safety of nuclear power plant (NPP) specify the requirements regarding design basis accidents (DBAs) and beyond design basis accidents (BDBAs), including severe accidents (SAs) with core meltdown, in NPP design (NP-001-15, NP-082-07, and others). For a rigorous calculational justification of BDBAs and SAs, it is necessary to develop an integral CC that will be in line with the requirements of regulatory documents on verification and certification (RD-03-33-2008, RD-03-34-2000) and will allow for determining the amount of data required to provide information within the scope stipulated by the requirements for the structure of the safety analysis report (SAR) (NP-006-16). The system of codes for realistic analysis of severe accidents (SOCRAT) (formerly, thermohydraulics (RATEG)/coupled physical and chemical processes (SVECHA)/behavior of core materials relocated into the reactor lower plenum (HEFEST)) was developed in Russia to analyze a wide range of SAs at NPP with water-cooled water-moderated power-generating reactor (WWER) at all stages of the accident. Enhancements to the code and broadening of its applicability are continually being pursued by the code developers (Nuclear Safety Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IBRAE RAN)) with OKB Gidropress JSC and other organizations. Currently, the SOCRAT/1 code can be used as a base tool to obtain realistic estimates for all parameters important for computational justification of the reactor plant (RP) safety at the in-vessel stage of SAs with fuel melting. To perform analyses using CC SOCRAT/1, the experience gained during execution of thermohydraulic codes is applied, which allows for minimizing the uncertainties in the results at the early stage of an accident scenario. This study presents the results of the work performed in 2010–2020 in OKB Gidropress JSC using the CC SOCRAT/1. Approaches have been considered to develop calculational models and analyze SAs using CC SOCRAT. This process, which is clearly structured in OKB Gidropress JSC, provides a noticeable reduction in human involvement, and reduces the probability of erroneous results.

关键词： system of codes for realistic analysis of severe accidents (SOCRAT) design basis accidents (DBAs) severe accidents (SAs) computer code (CC) nuclear power plant (NPP) design water-cooled water-moderated (WWER) modeling model safety requirements

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Trends of environmental accidents and impact factors in China

Pengli XUE, Weihua ZENG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2011年第5卷第2期页码 266-276 doi: 10.1007/s11783-010-0267-1

摘要： An overview of the spatial and temporal variations of the environmental accidents in China in recent years was presented in this paper using available data. The results showed that the frequency of pollution accidents was significantly decreased, from 3462 in 1990 to 462 in 2007. The water and air pollution accidents were found to be the dominant types, accounting for more than 80% of the total accidents. Considering the classification of environmental accidents at 4 scales, the general environmental accident, i.e., the least serious type, was the most frequent event, taking up 58.98% of the total pollution accidents. In addition, the distribution of environmental accidents was generally in accordance with the industrial layout in the country during the past decade. It is very important to note that the extraordinarily severe environmental accidents showed an increasing trend in underdeveloped regions, which was caused by the transfer and the development of heavy polluted industry in these areas. As to the losses of environmental accidents, the casualties presented an obvious reduction tendency, while the direct economic loss per accident tended to climb up. Furthermore, some key factors that affect the spatial and temporal tendencies of environmental accidents in China were discussed and some suggestions were put forward, hoping to shed light on environmental risk management and emergency plans making associated with environmental accidents in China.

关键词： environmental accidents spatial and temporal trends environmental risk

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重大环境污染事故风险模糊排序方法研究

熊德琪,陈钢,李琼

《中国工程科学》 2001年第3卷第8期页码 46-50

摘要：

根据工厂重大环境污染事故风险评价呈多指标多层次结构，且风险性排序具有相对性和模糊性的特点，运用模糊集理论中的权距离和隶属度概念，并将最小二乘法加以拓展，提出能够有效解决此类多指标多层次排序或优选问题的模糊排序方法。用于对大连市4家重点工厂的事故风险性进行评价和排序，评价结果合理、准确。

关键词：污染事故风险排序评价模糊

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The influencing factors of the WTP for the risk reduction of chemical industry accidents in China

Lei HUANG, Zhijuan SHAO, Weiliang BAO, Bailing DUAN, Jun BI, Zengwei YUAN

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2012年第6卷第6期页码 860-868 doi: 10.1007/s11783-012-0467-y

摘要： To explore the factors that influence respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the risk reduction of chemical industry accidents, a questionnaire survey combined with contingent valuation and psychometric paradigm methods were conducted in the city of Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, China. Both traditional socioeconomic variables and perceived characteristics of the hazards were considered in this study, and a Tobit model was used to find the factors influencing WTP under three risk reduction scenarios. The results showed that three demographic characteristics, , , and , significantly affected the WTP for chemical risk reduction. In addition, three extracted public risk perception factors, , , and , also strongly affected the WTP. The mean WTP value increased as the magnitude of the risk reduction increased. The number of factors influencing the WTP decreased as the reduction level improved, and only the factor had a significant influence on the WTP for a higher level (80%) of risk reduction. The cost for chemical safety management of Yancheng was calculated, and the optimized risk reduction level was determined. These findings can assist governments and policy makers to formulate suitable strategies for risk control, to reach target groups of people to develop effective communication, and to provide specific references for the best investment for the security of local residents.

关键词： risk perception willingness to pay contingent valuation method risk management school of the environment

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日本乡村规划建设治理研究

冯旭,王凯,马克尼

《中国工程科学》 2019年第21卷第2期页码 34-39 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2019.02.016

摘要：

本文对日本新版国土形成规划中的乡村定位，以及典型地区的乡村规划思路、建设内容、基层治理等进行了深入研究。日本乡村地区的规划与治理是在地方政府及村民自治会共同引导下，通过挖掘、发扬地域特色，实现对传统文化的保护、特色产业的振兴、乡村规划的编制、建设行为的管治。在未来乡村发展战略及建设重点、乡村规划编制目标与具体内容、乡村基层治理分工三个方面，对我国乡村规划建设与管理具有借鉴意义。

关键词：乡村发展战略乡村规划乡村建设乡村治理日本乡村

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Review of challenges and strategies for balanced urban–rural environmental protection in China

Beidou XI,Xiaoguang LI,Jixi GAO,Ying ZHAO,Hongliang LIU,Xunfeng XIA,Tianxue YANG,Lieyu ZHANG,Xuan JIA

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2015年第9卷第3期页码 371-384 doi: 10.1007/s11783-014-0744-z

摘要： With the rise of environmentalism in China, great efforts have been devoted to environmental protection over the past several decades. Compared with urban environmental protection, rural environmental protection has not been attached enough importance in China due to the dual-track structure of socio-economic development. As a result, rural China is shouldering disproportionally heavy environmental burdens partly because of the differences and biases between urban and rural environmental protection seen in environmental policies, environmental rights and interests, environmental protection investment, and the environmental protection awareness of people. To eliminate the gap between rural and urban environmental protection, and achieve the goal of “balanced urban–rural environmental protection” (BUREP), government should consider mapping out proper policies and strategies. In this paper we put forward an innovative strategy of BUREP against the background of China’s urban-rural environmental protection. First, we review the current status of rural environmental protection status and its challenges compared with urban environmental protection in China. Secondly, we analyzed the main driving factors and reasons deeply, and then we put forward the BUREP strategy base on the unequal status between urban and rural environment. Finally, we proposed the framework of BUREP. This study may serve as a scientific reference regarding decision-making in coordinating urban and rural environmental protection and in constructing the new countryside of China.

关键词： urban environment rural environment balanced urban–rural environmental protection framework of balanced urban–rural environmental protection (BUREP)

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A comprehensive overview of rural solid waste management in China

Chao ZENG,Dongjie NIU,Youcai ZHAO

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2015年第9卷第6期页码 949-961 doi: 10.1007/s11783-015-0816-8

摘要： This paper aims to conduct a comprehensive review of rural solid waste (RSW) in terms of characteristics, management and legislation. Survey results show that RSW generation rates range from 0.25 to 2.1 kg·(capita·d) in different rural villages across regions of China. Total RSW generation has been increasing, which is far higher than official data in 2014. RSW are dominated by food residue and coal ash/cinder/dust (at approximately 70%). Most of RSW are still discarded randomly without any treatment in China. Scattered RSW generation sources, imperfect legislation system, poor infrastructure on treatment and disposal are identified as the biggest challenge for RSW management currently in China. To improve RSW management, increasing financial resources, establishing sorting collection and transportation network, promoting sorting collection and recycling, improving treatment technology are proposed as the possible solution.

关键词： rural solid waste characteristics management legislation China

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基于文化传承的微介入乡村规划策略研究

郭海鞍

《中国工程科学》 2019年第21卷第2期页码 27-33 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2019.02.019

摘要：

长期以来，乡村规划一直沿袭城市规划设计的体系，以总图或鸟瞰图来表达对乡村规划的成果。很多地方政府一轮一轮做规划，但乡村风貌的改善效果甚微，这是因为忽视了乡村内在的文化传承问题，忽视了文化价值观的内在作用。源于城市的规划设计方法不能草率地划定乡村生活，因此需要研究一种与乡村文化传承相适应的规划设计理论。微介入规划理论是针对文化引导下的乡村复兴规划策略，基于一种小微渐进的方法，逐步实现乡村的改造与复兴，这种策略在当今大拆大改气势正盛的新一轮乡村规划进程中，显得尤为重要。

关键词：乡村规划微介入规划推演、容错乡村文化乡村复兴

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土地工程与乡村可持续发展典型案例分析与研究

李玉恒 ,王永生,阎佳玉,龙花楼,刘彦随

《中国工程科学》 2019年第21卷第2期页码 40-47 doi: 15302/J-SSCAE-2019.02.013

摘要：

关键词：土地工程乡村重构乡村振兴乡村弹性可持续发展

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Energy efficiency of rural residential buildings: a sustainable case study in Daping Village, Sichuan

Jiaping LIU, Rongrong HU, Liu YANG, Dalong LIU, Runshan WANG,

《能源前沿（英文）》 2010年第4卷第1期页码 117-121 doi: 10.1007/s11708-009-0081-2

摘要： A new type of rural residential building that is ecological, energy efficient and comfortable was designed. Research on the new building was sponsored by the Post-disaster Reconstruction Project in Daping Village, Sichuan Province. Based on field investigation and quantitative analysis, an appropriate design strategy and technology is presented, including climatic design strategies, local material use and building energy simulation.

关键词： rural residential building energy efficiency sustainability

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Effective interventions on health effects of Chinese rural elderly under heat exposure

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2022年第16卷第5期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-022-1545-4

摘要：

● Education and subsidy were effective interventions during short-term heat exposure.

关键词： High temperature Health effect Comprehensive evaluation Intervention Rural elderly

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火灾事故的灰色-马尔可夫模型预测研究

毛占利,朱毅,杨伯忠,朱磊

《中国工程科学》 2010年第12卷第1期页码 98-101

摘要：

鉴于火灾事故的发生受多种复杂因素的影响，并且具有较大的随机性和波动性的特点，笔者等将灰色模型和马尔可夫模型相结合，建立火灾事故的灰色–马尔可夫模型，利用灰色模型的灰色性和马尔可夫模型的随机性来体现各自的优点，并运用该模型对全国农村火灾事故进行预测。实际应用表明，灰色–马尔可夫模型的预测精度明显高于灰色模型的预测精度，完全能满足预测精度的要求，可以较好地用于火灾事故的预测。

关键词：灰色模型马尔可夫模型火灾事故预测

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Region-gridding recycling of bulk organic waste: Emerging views based on coordinated urban and rural

Wenbing Tan, Dongyu Cui, Xiaohui Zhang, Beidou Xi

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第6期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-020-1291-4

摘要： Abstract Bulk organic waste (BOW) has a large output in China. The improper disposal of BOW will not only bring serious environmental pollution, but also cause waste of biomass resources. The viewpoint proposes a region-gridding recycling management system of BOW that highlights the coordinated development of environmental, agricultural and energy elements in urban and rural areas. The viewpoint aims to drive the upstream and downstream industrial chains of BOW treatments, avoid the repeated construction of resource facilities, guide the upgrading of resource-based technologies, promote the professionalization of farmers, and thus built the high-quality modern agricultural recycling industrial park based on system management.

关键词： Bulk organic waste Recycling Urban-rural coordination Management system

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Energy and environment in Chinese rural housing: Current status and future perspective

Xudong YANG, Yi JIANG, Ming YANG, Ming SHAN,

《能源前沿（英文）》 2010年第4卷第1期页码 35-46 doi: 10.1007/s11708-010-0001-5

摘要： A large scale national survey of energy consumption and indoor environment quality of China’s rural housing was conducted from 2006–2007. The survey covered 15 provinces in northern China and 9 provinces in southern China. The survey data indicate that excessive building energy consumption and poor indoor environment pose significant challenges to the sustainable development of China’s rural housing. Possible causes are analyzed, the current status explained and possible development trends predicted. Strategies for sustainable and environmentally appropriate energy development in rural areas are recommended with an example of the “Zero-Coal, Low Energy Village”.

关键词： rural energy energy-saving sustainability